T3

See the scoped evidence_register and qualification_protocol. Structural plausibility, descriptive surveys and laboratory benchmarks do not alone identify a local commercial policy effect.

See the scoped evidence_register and qualification_protocol. Structural plausibility, descriptive surveys and laboratory benchmarks do not alone identify a local commercial policy effect.

Capital conditions can constrain decisions and influence valuation. Operating objective weights are declared preferences, not causally determined by a fitted macro scalar in this model. Separate market multiples/rates, firm funding/runway/covenants and management objectives. Compare scenarios; no fixed rate-to-payback or rate-to-growth-weight mapping is identified.

• Wei, Bencina, Nguyen, Ribeiro and Zelditch — From Prediction to Incrementality — 10 August 2026. Full preprint. Field intervention; full methods/limitations inspected. Eight-week member-randomized 50/50 LinkedIn comparison of causal scoring, exploration, constrained allocation and withholding versus propensity targeting, with a matched delivery envelope. The reported value lift concerns the complete policy. Static audience definitions and segment lineage protect assignment. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2608.10182v1
• Li, Yuan, Yang, Chen and Song — Attributed But Not Incremental — 25 June 2026. Full preprint. Production calibration against 18 rounds of channel experiments across up to eight TikTok markets, with rolling forward evaluation and daily hierarchical correction. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.26690v1
• Heusch — Structural Estimation of MMM Parameters from Geo Experiments — 21 August, revised 7 September 2026. Full v2. Synthetic structural study: 156-week fictional retailer, three channels, four four-week go-dark tests plus cooldown. Uses time paths to estimate effectiveness, carryover and saturation. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2608.21128v2
• Filippou, Quach and Jha — Pseudo Incrementality Testing — 16 September 2026. Full preprint. Changepoint detection plus counterfactual forecasting, two GeoLift benchmarks and synthetic stress tests. Only one of three nominal 90% intervals covers truth in the stress test; weak controls yield large bias. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.18257v1
• Ningyin Xu — Reference Dependent Pricing — deposited 16 July 2026. Repository and dissertation. Full PDF inspected. Randomized base-price histories across 818 food-vending locations during 2024, followed by equal current-price discount conditions in 2025. Source: https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/records/8v3yz-xrr12

• Rule-of-X is a practitioner valuation heuristic. Units, scaling and firm mandate must be declared; causal operating policies do not follow from it.
• one platform, short experiment, no isolation of individual components, no autonomous B2B seller economics. C3/C5/C6.
• normalized confidential errors; child-level credit is allocated rather than independently causally identified. A later cannibalization decline is before/after deployment evidence, not a randomized business-impact estimate. Complementarity and spillover remain limitations. C3/C5.
• stable parameters, specified adstock/saturation, no spillover and tested spend support. It is not an empirical estimate of SaaS brand decay. C3/C5.

Separate market multiples/rates, firm funding/runway/covenants and management objectives. Compare scenarios; no fixed rate-to-payback or rate-to-growth-weight mapping is identified.