A2 · Arguments · 32 theses

The 32 Theses

The contested claims the GTM World Model takes a position on — with the reasoning behind each.

32 theses the GTM World Model takes a position on. The current claims distinguish accounting, mathematical scenarios, causal effects and qualified commercial decisions. Their evidence boundaries matter alongside their epistemic labels. 22 are load-bearing — changing these assumptions changes the model’s implications.
v3.3 Model updated 2026-10-05 22 load-bearing · 32 total

Load-bearing theses (22)

These are the claims the model's structure depends on. If they are wrong, the model makes different predictions.

#ClaimType
T0 GTM combines convention-bound accounting, conditional summaries, causal policy questions and unvalidated mechanisms. Their different evidence requirements govern which decisions th… meta
T7 Fit and switching costs may modify GTM response. Universal multiplication, a sharp switching threshold and additive moat revenue are competing unvalidated models, requiring indepen… general
T10 Shared architecture patterns motivate governed workflows but do not validate a causal model or demonstrate business advantage. Qualification depends on authority, data, outcome qua… architecture
T11 Agent cost and reliability depend on task, model/tools, policy and environment. Failures can propagate, so compare independent acceptance, repairs, human paths and all eligible cos… general
T12 Buyer state can select accounts into seller contact and condition conversion. In-market share and pre-contact winner-shortlist prevalence are descriptive quantities, not a 95% caus… general
T13 A linear brand-memory stock has an equivalent exponential distributed-lag representation. Local awareness, shortlist and contribution effects require independent observations and i… general
T15 Agentic commercial value must be established for a complete policy through contribution, quality and full costs. Causal human-seller routing and customer-service evidence exist; ne… general
T16 Allocate agents across discovery, evaluation, approval, implementation and renewal according to measured incremental value and authority. There is no identified 95% versus 5% value… general
T17 Broad coverage is useful only with honest evidence states, units and scope. Measurable, measured, causally identified and deployment-qualified are different; an epistemic tag alone… general
T18 Queues, available service minutes, expertise, rework and feedback can constrain realized outcomes. A dimensionless alignment score cannot be inserted into a growth min-law or estab… general
T19 Imitation and rival/platform responses can change a tactic’s effect, alongside demand and delivery changes. An observed decay or changepoint does not identify reflexivity as its ca… general
T20 Measurement and incentives can alter behavior. Freeze definitions, preserve lineage and audit policy-induced selection before attributing metric movement to productivity. general
T21 Fit decomposition is useful when component observations are independently validated for the intended target. Retention reflects fit, contract terms, selection and switching; it is … general
T22 Distinguish parameter drift, regime change and topology change, with support checks and competing explanations. AI-search effects vary by destination, interface and outcome; no uni… general
T23 Category agent adoption can create congestion, improve relevance, expand demand or change platform power. Net externalities and first-mover decay are empirical questions requiring … general
T24 Concentration changes risk and allocation. Report cohort/subgroup distributions and tail costs as well as means; an average is a valid summary but may be insufficient for a decisio… general
T25 Declare objective outcomes, units, horizon and preferences; apply simultaneous cash, capacity, quality and authority constraints. A macro scalar does not identify the correct weigh… general
T27 The recurring-value walk is one convention-bound ledger among business-kind-specific stocks, revenue, contribution and cash. Hybrid kinds and simultaneous constraints require expli… general
T28 Execution evidence should inform strategy proposals through an explicit ratification process. Authority boundaries are normative policies; agents must obey the actual authorized sc… general
T8.1 Autonomy fraction and governance score are insufficient operating controls. Qualify a task/state policy with execute, review, repair, defer and stop actions, enforced authority and… architecture
T29 Governance effectiveness must be measured through detection, enforcement, correction, evidence and recovery. An illustrative fatigue parabola does not prove a universal governance … architecture
T30 Category-level agent externalities cannot be inferred from firm governance or falling reply rates alone. Measure joint-policy exposure, relevance, demand, rivals and platform respo… architecture

All 32 theses

#ClaimLoad-bearing
T0 GTM combines convention-bound accounting, conditional summaries, causal policy questions and unvalidated mechanisms. Their different evidence requirements govern which decisions the model can support. yes
T1 Retention and acquisition alter different stock flows; their relative investment value depends on horizon, feasible response, costs and quality. Long-run denominator sensitivity does not prove univers… —
T2 The funnel product gives unit elasticity to every stage rate. Prioritize feasible incremental contribution under downstream and capacity effects; the lowest observed conversion rate is not automatical… —
T3 Cash payback and discounted contribution are complementary. Runway, financing, renewal, obligations and downside determine which constraints bind; no universal capital-regime payback threshold is fitt… —
T4 Channels can saturate and response can drift, but convex CAC and a time-shifting portfolio are hypotheses rather than universal laws. Choose supported marginal contribution policies under capacity and… —
T5 Motion is constrained by contribution, service cost, cash, capacity, product and buyer requirements. ACV bands are segment heuristics; hybrid policies remain admissible. —
T6 Delayed response and endogenous exposure make attribution different from incrementality. Last-touch and self-reports alone cannot identify a causal lag kernel or justify spend allocation. —
T7 Fit and switching costs may modify GTM response. Universal multiplication, a sharp switching threshold and additive moat revenue are competing unvalidated models, requiring independent pre-outcome mea… yes
T8 Agents can execute authorized research, routing and drafting policies under human-owned strategy and explicit economic/authority constraints. Conversion, cycle-time and contribution improvements requi… —
T9 Human review can supply criterion-specific observations; valid labels, implemented updates and improved held-out outcomes must be established separately. Approval alone is neither ground truth nor a l… —
T10 Shared architecture patterns motivate governed workflows but do not validate a causal model or demonstrate business advantage. Qualification depends on authority, data, outcome quality, full cost and … yes
T11 Agent cost and reliability depend on task, model/tools, policy and environment. Failures can propagate, so compare independent acceptance, repairs, human paths and all eligible costs; human inclusion … yes
T12 Buyer state can select accounts into seller contact and condition conversion. In-market share and pre-contact winner-shortlist prevalence are descriptive quantities, not a 95% causal value split or a … yes
T13 A linear brand-memory stock has an equivalent exponential distributed-lag representation. Local awareness, shortlist and contribution effects require independent observations and identified variation;… yes
T14 PLG generations, cumulative referrals, active stock and paid customers are distinct. Constant-rate boundaries differ; no reviewed evidence proves B2B k<1 always or perpetual sustainable growth. —
T15 Agentic commercial value must be established for a complete policy through contribution, quality and full costs. Causal human-seller routing and customer-service evidence exist; neither establishes un… yes
T16 Allocate agents across discovery, evaluation, approval, implementation and renewal according to measured incremental value and authority. There is no identified 95% versus 5% value-creation split that… yes
T17 Broad coverage is useful only with honest evidence states, units and scope. Measurable, measured, causally identified and deployment-qualified are different; an epistemic tag alone does not authorize … yes
T18 Queues, available service minutes, expertise, rework and feedback can constrain realized outcomes. A dimensionless alignment score cannot be inserted into a growth min-law or establish that organizati… yes
T19 Imitation and rival/platform responses can change a tactic’s effect, alongside demand and delivery changes. An observed decay or changepoint does not identify reflexivity as its cause. yes
T20 Measurement and incentives can alter behavior. Freeze definitions, preserve lineage and audit policy-induced selection before attributing metric movement to productivity. yes
T21 Fit decomposition is useful when component observations are independently validated for the intended target. Retention reflects fit, contract terms, selection and switching; it is not a uniquely clean… yes
T22 Distinguish parameter drift, regime change and topology change, with support checks and competing explanations. AI-search effects vary by destination, interface and outcome; no universal direction fol… yes
T23 Category agent adoption can create congestion, improve relevance, expand demand or change platform power. Net externalities and first-mover decay are empirical questions requiring interference-aware m… yes
T24 Concentration changes risk and allocation. Report cohort/subgroup distributions and tail costs as well as means; an average is a valid summary but may be insufficient for a decision. yes
T25 Declare objective outcomes, units, horizon and preferences; apply simultaneous cash, capacity, quality and authority constraints. A macro scalar does not identify the correct weights. yes
T26 Category formation changes information, alternatives and adoption. Treat narrative/clarity proxies as hypotheses and test real consideration and contribution; existing accounting still applies. —
T27 The recurring-value walk is one convention-bound ledger among business-kind-specific stocks, revenue, contribution and cash. Hybrid kinds and simultaneous constraints require explicit timing and denom… yes
T28 Execution evidence should inform strategy proposals through an explicit ratification process. Authority boundaries are normative policies; agents must obey the actual authorized scope and versioned ac… yes
T8.1 Autonomy fraction and governance score are insufficient operating controls. Qualify a task/state policy with execute, review, repair, defer and stop actions, enforced authority and measured capacity. yes
T29 Governance effectiveness must be measured through detection, enforcement, correction, evidence and recovery. An illustrative fatigue parabola does not prove a universal governance threshold or optimal… yes
T30 Category-level agent externalities cannot be inferred from firm governance or falling reply rates alone. Measure joint-policy exposure, relevance, demand, rivals and platform response; the sign remain… yes