T1

See the scoped evidence_register and qualification_protocol. Structural plausibility, descriptive surveys and laboratory benchmarks do not alone identify a local commercial policy effect.

See the scoped evidence_register and qualification_protocol. Structural plausibility, descriptive surveys and laboratory benchmarks do not alone identify a local commercial policy effect.

L counts active logos; M measures recurring monetary value. New-logo inflow has units logos/time; new-value inflow has units currency/time. Expansion changes value without adding logos. With n=delta_value-g_expansion, M(T)=M0*exp(-n*T)+a_value*(1-exp(-n*T))/n for n!=0; at n=0, M(T)=M0+a_value*T. Near zero net attrition the long-run equilibrium is not a finite-horizon ROI comparison. Retention versus acquisition depends on feasible responses, costs, horizon and quality.

• Wei, Bencina, Nguyen, Ribeiro and Zelditch — From Prediction to Incrementality — 10 August 2026. Full preprint. Field intervention; full methods/limitations inspected. Eight-week member-randomized 50/50 LinkedIn comparison of causal scoring, exploration, constrained allocation and withholding versus propensity targeting, with a matched delivery envelope. The reported value lift concerns the complete policy. Static audience definitions and segment lineage protect assignment. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2608.10182v1
• Li, Yuan, Yang, Chen and Song — Attributed But Not Incremental — 25 June 2026. Full preprint. Production calibration against 18 rounds of channel experiments across up to eight TikTok markets, with rolling forward evaluation and daily hierarchical correction. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.26690v1
• Heusch — Structural Estimation of MMM Parameters from Geo Experiments — 21 August, revised 7 September 2026. Full v2. Synthetic structural study: 156-week fictional retailer, three channels, four four-week go-dark tests plus cooldown. Uses time paths to estimate effectiveness, carryover and saturation. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2608.21128v2
• Filippou, Quach and Jha — Pseudo Incrementality Testing — 16 September 2026. Full preprint. Changepoint detection plus counterfactual forecasting, two GeoLift benchmarks and synthetic stress tests. Only one of three nominal 90% intervals covers truth in the stress test; weak controls yield large bias. Source: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.18257v1
• Ningyin Xu — Reference Dependent Pricing — deposited 16 July 2026. Repository and dissertation. Full PDF inspected. Randomized base-price histories across 818 food-vending locations during 2024, followed by equal current-price discount conditions in 2025. Source: https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/records/8v3yz-xrr12

• No fitted local coefficient or complete-policy deployment evidence is supplied.
• one platform, short experiment, no isolation of individual components, no autonomous B2B seller economics. C3/C5/C6.
• normalized confidential errors; child-level credit is allocated rather than independently causally identified. A later cannibalization decline is before/after deployment evidence, not a randomized business-impact estimate. Complementarity and spillover remain limitations. C3/C5.
• stable parameters, specified adstock/saturation, no spillover and tested spend support. It is not an empirical estimate of SaaS brand decay. C3/C5.

With n=delta_value-g_expansion, M(T)=M0*exp(-n*T)+a_value*(1-exp(-n*T))/n for n!=0; at n=0, M(T)=M0+a_value*T. Near zero net attrition the long-run equilibrium is not a finite-horizon ROI comparison. Retention versus acquisition depends on feasible responses, costs, horizon and quality.